Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
