Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
